Texas State Football 2025 Season Prediction

Following Texas State’s historic victory in the 2025 First Responders Bowl over former conference rival UNT and a 2^nd straight 8-5 season, many players would depart from the program by way of graduation, the transfer portal or declaration for the NFL draft. Key players such as QB Jordan McCloud, RB Ismail Mahdi and star wideouts Joey Hobert and Jaden Williams are a few integral pieces that the Bobcats will desperately miss this season. These departures left Bobcats Head Coach GJ Kinne with a lot of work on his hands heading into the offseason.

One of the bigger stories to come from the offseason was Texas State’s historic move to the PAC-12 starting in 2026. The university will be leaving the Sun Belt after joining back in 2013 and moving on to a conference that has dealt with recent losses regarding athletic programs and realignment. Not only did Kinne lose most of his key players on both sides of the ball this offseason – but he also now must deal with the added pressure of finishing off their tenure in the Sun Belt strong and the potential of winning the conference championship for the first time in program history. All this leads many to believe that the Bobcats will slip back into their mediocre ways, but I think it’ll be quite the opposite. Let’s dive into a week-by-week season prediction and hope that the Bobcat’s can replicate it this season.

Week 1 vs. Eastern Michigan – WIN

This game is a “tell all” for the 2025-2026 season. If Texas State comes out and dominates, it proves that they’re more of a threat than people believe. However, I don’t see that happening. With an entirely new defense and the potential of seeing multiple QB’s take snaps, I see this being a game that the Bobcats win but could’ve won more decisively if it was held later in the season. Most likely this will finish in a two-point differential in favor of the Bobcats.

Week 2 @ UTSA – WIN

After embarrassing rival UTSA last year in San Marcos, I see this matchup going in a different direction, likely being a much closer game. UTSA also suffered massive losses in the offseason and from what I saw, they really didn’t do much to fill those holes. Their program lost 11 starters from last season and QB Owen McCown doesn’t impress me all too much from what we saw he was capable of last year. However, this game is going to be played in front of a packed Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas where UTSA has dominated Texas State as of late with three straight wins. But I’ll tell you one thing; Bobcats travel well and that dome will probably be more split than people realize. Texas State steals this one from the Roadrunners and starts off the year 2-0 for the second straight season.

Week 3 @ Arizona State – LOSS

I don’t think I need to explain this one too much to be honest. Arizona State will likely be ranked going into this matchup and will be playing with an electric home crowd behind them. Although, this is another game where I can see the Bobcats making a statement. The Sun Devils relied heavily on RB Cam Skattebo last year in their matchup. So much so that when Skattebo was unavailable for a brief period, Arizona State was exposed. It took a Bobcat fumble inside their own territory for ASU to steal the win with a game-winning field goal. While I think ASU will win this game, I think this is another one score game that comes down to a 2-minute drill. Another heartbreaker for the Bobcats against the Sun Devils.

Week 4 vs. Nicholls – WIN

The historic battle of the paddle between Texas State and Nicholls that dates to 1980 gets revived once again this fall when Nicholls comes to visit San Marcos. Nicholls being an FCS program alone gives Texas State an advantage. This game will also act as Texas State’s family weekend contest. Meaning UFCU stadium is going to be packed with not only students, but also many alumni as well. Coming off two of the hardest games on the schedule for the Bobcats. If the Bobcats want to gain respect from their opponents the rest of the way, Nicholls should have no place in this game. This game will likely be like the matchup vs Southern Miss we saw last year where the Bobcats decimated their opposition. Texas State should win this one in a blowout and retain ownership of the paddle.

Week 5 – BYE WEEK

Week 6 @ Arkansas State – WIN

To start off their final conference run in the Sun Belt, the Bobcats must face off against a team that they dismantled last year at home. Arkansas State once again didn’t show me much in the portal, so I believe that this contest will be one Texas State will fondly look back upon in the future. It’s important to remember what happened last time the Bobcats came into this stadium. This time, with an Arkansas State fanbase that isn’t too happy with Texas State’s move to the PAC-12. Bobcats replicate what they did last year and control the game throughout, securing the win.

Week 7 vs. Troy – WIN

Troy confuses me. They’ve not only absolutely dominated the Sun Belt as of late but have also dominated Texas State in general. Texas State did blow out Troy to start off conference play last year on the road, but you never know what you’re going to get with this Troy team. They have the potential, but I don’t think they’ll find it vs the Bobcats in week seven. Not to mention, this will be Texas State’s Homecoming game. Meaning one thing really; a bunch of loud, obnoxious and most likely intoxicated Bobcat students will fill up UFCU stadium with energy this Troy team has never seen. Texas State wins this one by one or two scores in front of the Southwest Texas State Alumni.

Week 8 @ Marshall – WIN

This game begins the most important four game stretch that GJ Kinne has ever encountered at Texas State. Winning this one vs. the reigning Sun Belt champions is crucial if they wish to stay alive in the Sun Belt race. That sounds good on paper until you realize that Marshall had their entire roster gutted immediately after winning that conference championship game. Losing not only their head coach, but also many of their players to programs like Southern Miss. Evaluating each current roster, the Bobcats should handle this one easily. However, these Texas State teams do have a history of dropping games vs teams they shouldn’t. If there was any team on the schedule that could play that role this year, it would be this Marshall team. If Texas State remains disciplined and plays sound football, Bobcats win a tight one and remain undefeated in the Sun Belt.

Week 9 – BYE WEEK

Week 10 vs. James Madison – LOSS

For the first time since the Arizona State game, Texas State will face high-level competition. This is a JMU team that people say will win the Sun Belt and I completely agree. This team should be really good. But Sun Belt football has given fans some shockers as of late. Bobcat fans will blackout the Wack on national TV, but I don’t think that’ll be enough. I see this game going two ways. Texas State steals this one vs the Dukes and shocks the Sun Belt or they get handed their first loss of conference play either by a close game or by a two-score game in favor of JMU. This is one that Texas State will look back on and wish they could have called a few key plays differently. Texas State adds an L at home.

Week 11 @ ULL – LOSS

The Cajuns are to Texas State as Jose Altuve is to the Yankees, the definition of dominance. Besides the fact that ULL has beaten Texas State in all twelve of their previous matchups, the Cajuns are going to be a very solid team once again after losing to Marshall in the conference championship game last fall. Cajun fans have a history of being loud. In what will most likely be the most watched game of Sun Belt football this year, ULL fans are going to sell out their newly renovated stadium and fill it with tons of energy. The winner of this game probably wins the West and will go to the Sun Belt championship. As much as I would love Texas State to stick it to the Cajuns one last time before departing for the PAC-12, I don’t see how the Bobcats can escape this one. Although Kinne’s team’s usually play the Cajuns well, that’s not really saying a lot considering Bobcat teams before he was hired have been absolutely embarrassed by ULL. This one should be a fun one to watch for a football fan but not if you’re a Texas State fan. Cajuns win by 10.

Week 12 @ Southern Miss – WIN

After what must have felt like a century, the Golden Eagle fanbase finally has a football program worth being excited for. This USM team is basically last year’s Marshall team but in a new uniform. They even got the Herd’s former Head Coach to join them. This won’t be an easy win anymore for Sun Belt programs like Texas State. That being said, I still have the Bobcats winning this one in a thriller. How else would you like to finish your last road game in the Sun Belt? This is a game that if the Bobcats play almost perfectly, they will win. I’m predicting a back-and-forth high scoring contest that ends in overtime. Bobcats prevail.

Week 13 vs. ULM – WIN

I honestly feel bad for ULM fans. Last year they showed so much potential. Finishing with a 5-7 record and many would agree that they should’ve taken Marshall’s spot in the Independence Bowl vs #22 Army. Now there’s rumors saying that ULM will drop down to the FCS level of college football. I’m sorry Warhawk fans but the Bobcats will most likely take advantage of that weakness. Bobcats take this one in a blowout and move onto week 14.

Week 14 vs. South Alabama – WIN

To close out Texas State’s tenure in the Sun Belt, the Bobcats will face off against a team that has played them well over the years. This matchup usually has fans of both programs screaming into their TV and pulling out their hair. Recent games have been very much back and forth contests the last two years. It’s almost guaranteed that when one team scores, the other must replicate it. In another high scoring affair, Texas State pulls through and waves goodbye to the Sun Belt in winning fashion.

This leaves Texas State with a final record of 9-3 and 6-2 in conference play. It should be enough to punch them a ticket to the Sun Belt Championship game. However, like previously stated, the winner of that game vs ULL will most likely win the West. Pending the collapse of the Cajuns, Texas State will not represent the West in the Championship game. Meaning that after 13 seasons in the Sun Belt, Texas State football would have won ZERO conference championships. But it’s not all bad news for the Bobcats as a 9-3 record is more than enough to punch them a ticket to a high-level bowl game. No disrespect to the First Responders Bowl, but I hope the back-to-back champs won’t be returning to make it a three-peat. I’m predicting an appearance in the New Orleans bowl for the Bobcats, giving them an opportunity to go to the PAC-12 with their first 10-win season at the FBS level.

This season has the potential to be a very fun one, but also a very disappointing one. While I have the Bobcats going 9-3, I can also see them finishing as low as 6-6. There are just too many questions that need to be answered. If the Bobcats play solid football and take care of the teams that they’re supposed to, that 9-win regular season is theirs. If they stumble along the way due to not taking every program seriously, it’ll most likely be a 7 to 8-win season once again. Either way, the Bobcat faithful will be in San Marcos every Saturday to support. Go Cats.